原文:

PS3 Won't Gain Market Share Until Mid 2008 – simExchange

While the PS3 is slowly "closing the gap" with Xbox 360 in monthly sales, it's not expected to pick up significant market share until later in 2008, according to simExchange analyst Jesse Divnich.
Posted by James Brightman on Monday, December 10, 2007
In addition to Michael Pachter's preview, simExchange analyst Jesse Divnich sent along a note with similar predictions for November. Software sales are expected to total $1.15 billion – another great sign for the growth of the industry. Divnich notes that this "will be the highest ever seen in the month of November and the first time November sales will break $1 billion."

In terms of hardware, the Wii is expected to top consoles with 1,060,000 units sold. The DS is expected to fare even better with 1.3 million units sold, compared to 468K for Sony's PSP. The Xbox 360 is predicted to sell 728K compared to 410K for the PS3.

"Consistently a distant third, the PS3 is beginning to close the gap with its closest rival, as the Xbox 360 is only expected to out sell the PS3 1.8-to-1 in November compared to 3-to-1 in October. The prediction market upgraded the PS3 forecast after the initial reception of the new 40GB PS3 model and recent press releases indicating a strong Thanksgiving weekend," Divnich explained.

That said, Sony is not likely to make up any real ground this holiday. "Despite increasing PS3 sales, we do not expect any significant shift in PS3 market share in Sony's favor until mid 2008," Divnich said. "A shift will likely be the result of continued hardware price cuts and the release of several AAA titles such as Metal Gear Solid 4 and Grand Theft Auto IV—both of which is expected to be released near the half-way point of 2008. The PS3 is expected to gain market share as the prediction market is still expecting a close race in global lifetime sales with current expectations of 58 million units and 54 million units for the Xbox 360 and the PS3, respectively."

Here's how the prediction market stacks up for some of November's big titles:

Assassin's Creed (PS3) - 272,000 units
Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare (Xbox 360) - 833,000 units
Crysis (PC) - 66,000 units
Manhunt 2 (Wii) - 46,000 units
Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games (Wii) - 242,000 units
Mass Effect (Xbox 360) - 328,000 units
Rock Band (Xbox 360) - 152,000 units
Super Mario Galaxy (Wii) - 1,270,000 units
Unreal Tournament 3 (PC) - 78,000 units

The figures for the two PC titles are somewhat alarming, as Divnich points out that PC sales are seeing continued cannibalization. "PC games have long been considered the pioneer in industry gaming, always pushing the envelope in graphics and online play. Unfortunately, this year has seen a slew of highly anticipated first-person shooter titles packed into the back half of the year. This resulted in sales cannibalization as witnessed last month by poor sales of Enemy Territory: Quake Wars due to competition from Half-Life 2, and anticipation for Call of Duty 4, Crysis, and Unreal Tournament 3. A similar phenomenon is occurring in November," Divnich said.